What if a newly empowered Afghan electorate demands peace talks with the Taliban? I've read that such is playing a role in coming elections - certainly, Afghans in general like neither the Taliban or the Americans and would probably welcome the illusion of peace. My guess is the Taliban would welcome such an initiative knowing full well they could simply walk away from any agreement once the Americans were gone. But what would the US position be? One tends to assume they would oppose talks - but think about it, a peace agreement would give cover to a US retreat, a retreat that they could pretend or sell as something else - the US could behind the scenes encourage an Afghan gov't talking peace with the Taliban even if they believed those talks to be a ruse - it's a possibility. I certainly believe that Obama now regrets the commitment he made to Afghanistan in the election and would like nothing better than a convenient excuse to cover a withdrawal - but would I, despite my disdain for Obama's shallow machinations, think that a good thing? Given my growing scepticism re the Afghan war and the what I think may be dubious assumptions governing COIN operations in general I'm guessing my opinion would be... I'd accept the outcome, but not feel comfortable with how we got there - I'd worry that the how could come back to haunt in an unpleasant way.
If the approach in Afghanistan is going to remain COIN centric then I have my doubts concerning the good that can be accomplished - in which case I suppose catch the first train out if you can. There's a lot that makes sense about COIN as a tactic - but as a long term strategy? I'm dubious - I think there's much wishful thinking underlying it - and the fact, as Bing West recently wrote about, that it's being sold to the public as a 'non-kinetic solution' to war is an approach fraught with downside. Look what just happened in Iraq this morning - seven bombs gone off, a hundred people dead - it's not at all misplaced to view that as a rather brutal commentary on the long term viability of a tactic like COIN. I would certainly like to be proved wrong - I definitely fear the consequences of being chased from Afghanistan with tail between legs - but if they're going to remain committed to the narrow confines of what ultimately is a relatively limited counter insurgency operation, and I see nothing to suggest otherwise, certainly not with Obama calling the shots, then it's hard to be optimistic.
