After reading a blog by a retired Australian air force officer and now academic that reviewed the F-22 vs the F-35 argument in a highly technical and seemingly thorough way I've returned to my original position on the Raptor - namely, killing the thing off makes no sense. The only mitigating factor I can think of is potential development of stealthy, sophisticated, jet powered, high performance UCAVs - I guess something like that, especially if they're a lot cheaper to produce, could make sense of curtailing F-22 production - and maybe a belief that we can stay one step ahead of the Russians and Chinese as far as radar jamming technologies go - otherwise, I don't get it.
Things that struck me:
- the notion that Gates is a smart and reasonable guy and you should trust his judgement is compromised somewhat when you realise this is Rumsfeld's policy, he's the the one who wanted to drastically cut F-22 production and ramp up F-35, Gates is just following through on that decision. So contrary to popular belief this is not a Gates initiative, it's a Rumsfeld initiative, and last time I looked Rummy's reputation leaves something to be desired.
- the idea that the F-22 can't do CAS or manage a ground attack role is not accurate - it can, and with further upgrades and borrowing certain systems from the F-35 its abilities in that role increase without losing its other capabilities. Now, it can't match the F-35 in this ground attack role, but it can do well enough to justify cutting some F-35 production in order to add F-22s. On the other hand, there's no modification you can make on the F-35 that will allow it to do what the Raptor can do. In short, it seems the F-22 is a much more versatile plane.
- closely tied to last point is 'cost'. Originally it was thought the F-35 was going to be much cheaper to produce and this was a big selling point for it over the Raptor - but it no longer looks like that's going to be the case, it's looking like in the end there may be only a 20-30 million dollar difference per unit between the two, which is not that much all told. When you add in that the F-22 can sort of do what the F-35 can do but the F-35 can't at all do what the F-22 can do, well then I think you've got a problem.
- as a fighter jet, the F-35 will not be in the same league as the F-22. As far as flight performance goes, it will be about the equal of an F-16 - it would lose to a SU-30 in a dogfight. Its air dominance role is all about its advanced radar system - but if Russia and China develop an F-22 like 5th generation fighter, it will be toast, it won't possess the performance parameters to survive. It's primarily a CAS, ground attack plane - it cannot replace the F-22 as a long range, deep penetration, air dominance strike fighter.
- Russian aero-space expertise joined to Chinese money is a lethal combination. There are rumours that China and Russia are collaborating on both the new S-400 air defense system and a 5th generation fighter. We tend to think of the F-22 as having nothing to oppose it because we assume Russia doesn't have the financial and institutional resources to keep up but Russia still has plenty of expertise in the field and you mate that talent with Chinese money and suddenly maybe the F-22 doesn't look so unique. Remember, when the US developed its 'teen' series of jets it left the Soviet Union in the dust as far as air dominance went, but Soviets went back to the drawing board and produced new versions of MiGs and SUs that were at least as good and possibly better than American counterparts - that development is what led to building the F-22. Russia can not match what the Soviet Union was capable of - but with China as a partner, such wouldn't be the case - in fact with growing support from Russian technology China is putting together a force that may equal what America originally feared from the Soviets, ie the cold war may be over but that does not mean weapon systems originating from that era are now irrelevant. In short, it may prove quite naive to act as if Russia, with Chinese money, or China itself backward engineering from Russian technology, cannot produce something the equal of the F-22 - and rest assured, if they do manage this, they won't be stopping production at 187 planes.
- Obama, in canceling the F-22, called it a relic of the cold war, but the writer of the blog makes a convincing argument that the way things are going the F-35 is more likely to prove the relic than the Raptor.
- unless Gates has some tricks up his sleeve, terminating the F-22 essentially cedes air dominance to China in the event of a major conflict in the Pacific rim, assuming the continuing saturation of advanced Russian air defense and fighter technology by the PLA. Is this like inviting China to dramatically expand its circle of influence? Are we asking for trouble? Australia and Japan want the F-22, especially if the US is not going to build anymore, because they see the F-22 as vital in countering Chinese actions - but a 1998 law forbids foreign sales. Think you have to think hard about repealing that law.
This is a complex and specialized subject and without the comprehension an expert can bring to it it's hard to feel confidence in one's opinion - still, I've never trusted this animus against the F-22 - something has always seemed off about it. For instance, Australia has just purchased 6 billion worth of F-18 Super Hornets to fill gap left by delayed F-35 - but from what I read the Super Hornet is no match for the Flanker, the plane it would most likely have to go against - so why spend 6 billion now? Is it possible they believe the F-35 is not going to live up to advance billing which will lead to a revival of the F-22, the plane they really want, and they feel the US, to counter fear amongst its Pacific Rim allies, will have to eventually allow foreign sales? From what I've read, the F-35 will nicely fill a role with the US military replacing aging F-15s, 16s, and 18s - especially when used in conjunction with the F-22, one can certainly grant it a prodigious lethality as a close range ground attack weapons platform - but deep penetration fighter it ain't, and should Russia successfully upgrade the SU-35 into something F-22-like in performance attributes with an Active Radar Array one might have to doubt its abilities as an air dominance fighter in any arena - and therefore I don't see it at all satisfying the needs of Japan and Australia, not in the shadow of a partnership between China and Russia and the advent of an inundation of Russian aerospace technology into the Pacific Rim.
