Interesting opinion in Jerusalem Post this morning quoting unnamed Israeli officials as believing that Iran will have the ability to make a bomb within a year but won't - that they will instead get to the point where they can quickly produce a nuclear force but not take the final step. What that will give them is the ability to claim compliance regarding proliferation concerns but still reap the advantages of a nuclear deterrence.
If true it would be in line with what I've said - that an Iranian bomb would not be aimed directly Israel but used rather as a means to promote Iranian influence and power elsewhere to the disadvantage of Israel - think how the Soviet Union used nuclear deterrence to expand its sphere of influence. In fact my whole point regarding how Iran getting the bomb can prove just as destabilizing as an Israel attempt to interdict such is based on that model.
Question is: wouldn't they need to test the bomb first - or can production follow closely on the heels of a test and so that's not really an issue? Israel has never demonstrated its nuclear capacity and yet still reaps the benefits of a perceived deterrence.
