So, did I nail the whole Iran business? A reasonable effort, I think- better than a lot of people who get paid to write this shit anyway. The status quo survives, the regime is hardening and becoming more severe, the Guard's influence is enhanced, and the opposition is faltering because of internal contradictions - all these things I basically [?] predicted. As long as the Guard remains strong, unified behind a single purpose, the only way we avoid confrontation with Iran over its nuclear ambitions is if Obama capitulates - but since Israel's hand has been strengthened by events in Persia capitulation may not even be an option for the Obama no matter how much he covets it. Because the revealed popular discontent with elements of the regime is just not going to fade away and will almost certainly become an issue again it's vital for the powers that be in Iran to consolidate their present advantages - and I believe that means that on the top of their list of things to do is get the bomb as quickly as possible.
The wildcard player here is the EU: if Obama decides to become a hardliner on Iran - and in order to avoid looking shallow, weak and irresolute I don't see how he has a choice but to become a hardliner - if the EU plays along with a get tough on Iran policy then I don't know what the consequences of that would be. Of course, my suspicion is that any hardline stance taken by Obama and the EU would be at best nominal and amount to nothing in the end - which again would bring us back to Israel. I imagine if Obama fails to go hardline on Iran one of the reasons will be how then could he say no to Israel should they demand permission for a military strike?
And then you've got the USS John McCain trailing that North Korean freighter... I wonder how long it is before Obama starts smoking again?
update: apparently he already is smoking again - but only occasionally, so he says. Score another one for me, I think...
