If A-- wins a close one are we about to see a Persian version of Tiananmen Square? Possibly - and I expect with similar results. After all, a popular supposed moderate was unexpectedly swept to power in the 90's and yet regardless here we are on the verge of a military confrontation with Iran.
One thing for sure, if the putative moderate does win Obama will be taking credit for it - and Israel will be pushed even tighter into its corner - which, as I've stated, though the liberals seem to have convinced themselves this will be a good thing I on the contrary predict will produce a dynamic which will bring about the exact opposite.
update: As confirmation of the point I'm making, this from Jerusalem Post:
While all of this [ie Iranian domestic issue] is important for understanding the Iranian people, Israel's attention is not on the cost of bread and meat but on the future of Teheran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, the defense officials stress. For this reason, there are some in the defense establishment who are silently praying that despite Mousavi's recent climb in the polls, Ahmadinejad wins Friday's vote.
Due to his radical character and extremist remarks, Ahmadinejad helps garner world support for stopping the nuclear program. Due to his reformist and moderate image, Mousavi - who when he was prime minister from 1981 to 1989 helped lay the foundations of the country's atomic program - may succeed in "laundering" the program in a dialogue with the United States, the officials fear.