As the election winds down and an Obama victory practically assured I think it useful to remind that although the economy dominates now it is with foreign policy that Presidential decisions are most dramatically felt. Sure, republicans and democrats have different approaches to economic issues and those differences matter; and sure, there's a strong likelihood that Obama will have a super majority to work with in Congress and that could skew expected outcomes - but the economy in general, especially given the global nature of it now, tends to have a mind of its own and rises and falls independent of political meddling - and even if one is generous in factoring in meddling the President's role there is a little hit and miss, somewhat superficial. Yes, monetary policy by the Fed and bits of legislation enacted by Congress played significant roles in current economic meltdown, but would any of that not have been the case had there been a different President? I don't see it. Economics is such a specialized discipline that most Presidents are entirely dependent on the specialists in their cabinet - and with those specialists then being pretty much dependent on the views of the business community... well, you see, I tend to believe a President's impact on the economy is limited - although all bets are off if Obama gets his super majority.
No, it's with foreign policy that a President's legacy is largely made and his effect on the well being of the country, both present and future, most strongly felt - that is, when we're talking about great countries, super powers, empires - and that of course is what we're talking about here. And so it is that an Obama presidency troubles me deeply - or, maybe more accurately, that the near delusional enthusiasm lavished on such a prospect by his acolytes troubles me: they've convinced themselves, without any corroborating evidence, that he is ready to lead - but to lead properly he's going to have to disappoint them, possibly bitterly disappoint, because their idealized enthusiasm is too far to the left to meet effectively the hard realities that necessarily will present themselves - and so, what will Obama do then? Lead or cave? Be decisive or equivocate? Will he seek to protect his popularity or make the tough decisions that imperil it? Will he reveal himself to be an enlightened moderate comfortable with the sometimes cruel dictates of realism or a benighted ideologue serving the naive idealism of a left wing agenda? These are the questions people should be asking - these are the questions that could come back to haunt.
