Ah - Iranians are expecting delivery of latest in Russian anti-aircraft defense systems, not sure when, but seemingly within the year or possibly next few months. An Israeli attack, if not a certainty before, now is: the stances and threatening actions they have taken obligate them to intercede. Only two things can stop it now: a deal that inhibits nuclear intentions; or Iran backing down. Neither seems even remotely possible at this point, if only because Iran views itself as winning no matter the outcome: if nothing happens they have the bomb; if Israel attacks they have lethal propaganda to exploit - and probably a nuke program delayed only, not derailed.
So the key questions become when? and then what? I've speculated that Israel does not welcome an Obama presidency and therefore might move before the election - but the political calculations behind such a move would be pretty transparent and potentially quite damaging, especially if Obama were to win regardless. So assuming they wait til after the election, two scenarios come into play: a McCain victory leaves them free to wait and see how the Iranians respond to such an outcome - until of course they feel they can wait no longer; an Obama victory on the other hand forces them to act before the swearing in - assuming of course I'm right in thinking Obama worries them.
But then what? A wider war? A barrage of heated rhetoric seasoned with skirmishes here and there? Or a series of Hezbollah sponsored terrorist attacks on Jewish targets everywhere, especially in Europe and North America? My guess would be the latter, reactions to which may lead to events spinning out of control, most worrisomely in Iraq where Iranian proxies could easily convert anger against Jews to anger against Americans.
Still, it is conceivable, after initial volleys of spite, that the result will be more whimper and less bang. Conceivable it is, likely probably not - it will all depend on how the Iranians weigh the pros and cons of retaliation and how they judge what best serves their long term interests. But certainly, if we see Party of God terror attacks on American soil, that could get out of hand quickly.
