what if the Iranian seizure of 15 British soldiers is an attempt to change the rules of engagement - meaning, the next time there's an approach of an Iranian vessel you don't go down without a fight as the Brits did here? What if it's Iran's intention to create such an incident somewhere down the road, what purpose would be served? I suppose to dampen down public discontent with A---. Rally round the flag, infidel oppressors, all that good stuff. If that is so wouldn't it mean that A--- is supported by the Mullahs? They after all control the Republican Guard, the hardy chaps responsible for this seizure. That would be interesting, no? - because there's been some indication that A--- and the Mullahs are somewhat at odds. Seems to me that would indicate this is not some isolated event but rather part of a strategy.
Because Blair is in a tough spot here and the Iranians must know that - he can't respond militarily, call for more sanctions dwarfed by those already imposed by nuclear standoff, nothing he can really trade off here or exchange for release, except maybe promising to leave Iraq, which wouldn't happen - and the Iranians must have figured all this - so why did they do it? Just to get someone's attention? That seems a little thin, although the timing may suggest that was the reason. Still, I'm thinking it's a bit more pernicious than that - if they perceive the Americans as being vulnerable right now, which they are, a limited skirmish wherein they could claim a victory of some sort could prove useful.
Funny to hear all the right wing boys calling for a strong response that proves their mettle and resolve; comparing Iran to a spoiled child that must be punished accordingly. Typically shortsighted of them in the 'if all you got is hammers everything looks like a nail' mode. Hey, if you really wanna show cold blooded toughness just call their bluff and tell the Iranians to either release soldiers now or summarily execute them - with of course the understanding that response to an unfortunate reply to ultimatum will be somewhat biblical in nature. It ain't poker until you're playing with real money.
War is kind of seductive - I suppose the immensity of it gets people to thinking that the awfulness of life can be overcome. In that sense God and War very similar as far as human projections onto the cosmic screen go.
