Wednesday, August 31, 2016

It occurs to me that the result of the election will not be the thing that determines the fate of the GOP and conservatism – if Trump wins [given the polls a virtual impossibility at this point] Trumpism and its many apologists will be validated, vindicated, the GOP will be forever changed accordingly and conservatism will either vanish or need reinventing under the banner of a new party – if he loses those same apologists and the bulk of Trump’s followers will spawn conspiracy theories, spew copious venom at the evil Republican establishment and then scurry after Trump to whatever media ‘empire’ he’s planning on building, meaning many of those people will likely never vote GOP again, meaning the GOP will no longer be a viable national party, meaning conservatism will need to be reinvented under a different banner.

When it comes to just how screwed the GOP and conservatism are, the result of the election is not the thing that matters – what matters are the debates. If Hillary reduces Trump to a smoldering pile of ashes on the stage, thoroughly embarrasses him, thoroughly exposes him as a man utterly unfit and unprepared for the Oval Office, then the Trumpkins will not be able to blame his loss in the election on conspiracy theories and the perfidious establishment – the clear reason for the loss will have leapt off TV screens in millions of homes across the country: not qualified to serve. Conversely, if Trump manages to crawl over the lowest of bars when it comes to questions of ‘competence’ or if Hillary stumbles and fails to deliver, then you’re back to the two inevitabilities stated above.

I know what you’re thinking: poor debate performance didn’t hurt him in the primaries. Two big differences here: nothing hurt him in the primaries because of an unshakeable plurality of Koolaid drinkers who couldn’t have cared less if he sounded presidential – in the upcoming debates those Koolaid drinkers will be dwarfed by the number of people tuning in for the explicit purpose of seeing if Trump can pull off sounding half way presidential; more problematic for Trump is fact there’ll be nowhere to hide on that stage – he will not be able escape Hillary’s attacks by tossing off insults or diverting attention to someone else nor will he be able to fake his way through tough questions with incoherent non-answers laced with slogans and empty rhetoric, babbling on until some kindly moderator steps in to save him – Sean Hannity won’t be there to finish his word salad sentences for him. Put another way, people tuned in to the republican debates to see a Trump performance – people will be tuning in to the presidential debates to see a presidential performance. If Trump can’t pull it off it will be obvious to everyone.

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In an ironical twist so absurd it challenges belief, the fate of conservatism in America may be reduced to depending on the debating skills of the great pant-suited one, the corrupt and cankled doyen of our fallen democracy. God help us all.
It occurs to me that the result of the election will not be the thing that determines the fate of the GOP and conservatism – if Trump wins [given the polls a virtual impossibility at this point] Trumpism and its many apologists will be validated, vindicated, the GOP will be forever changed accordingly and conservatism will either vanish or need reinventing under the banner of a new party – if he loses those same apologists and the bulk of Trump’s followers will spawn conspiracy theories, spew copious venom at the evil Republican establishment and then scurry after Trump to whatever media ‘empire’ he’s planning on building, meaning many of those people will likely never vote GOP again, meaning the GOP will no longer be a viable national party, meaning conservatism will need to be reinvented under a different banner. 

When it comes to just how screwed the GOP and conservatism are, the result of the election is not the thing that matters – what matters are the debates. If Hillary reduces Trump to a smoldering pile of ashes on the stage, thoroughly embarrasses him, thoroughly exposes him as a man utterly unfit and unprepared for the Oval Office, then the Trumpkins will not be able to blame his loss in the election on conspiracy theories and the perfidious establishment – the clear reason for the loss will have leapt off TV screens in millions of homes across the country: not qualified to serve. Conversely, if Trump manages to crawl over the lowest of bars when it comes to questions of ‘competence’ or if Hillary stumbles and fails to deliver, then you’re back to the two inevitabilities stated above.

I know what you’re saying: poor debate performance didn’t hurt him in the primary. Two big differences here: nothing hurt him in the primary because of an unshakeable plurality of Koolaid drinkers who could care less if he sounded presidential – in the upcoming debates those Koolaid drinkers will be dwarfed by the number of people tuning in for the explicit purpose of seeing if Trump can pull off sounding half way presidential; more problematic for Trump is fact there’ll be no where to hide on that stage – he will not be able escape Hillary’s attacks by tossing off insults or diverting attention to someone else nor will he be able to fake his way through tough questions with incoherent non-answers laced with slogans and empty rhetoric. In other words, people tuned into the republican debates to see a Trump performance – people will be tuning into the presidential debates to see a presidential performance. If Trump can’t pull it off it will be obvious to everyone.


In an ironical twist so absurd it challenges credulity, the fate of conservatism in America may depend on the debating skills of the great pant suited one, the corrupt and cankled doyen of our fallen democracy. God help us all.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

I don’t think I could ever support Trump – he’s ignorant of policy or even a simple understanding of how the US government works – the ideas that he does espouse are at best unfeasible, at worst ill-conceived, wrongheaded or flat out misguided if not utterly incoherent and unmoored from reality – his temperament seems deeply flawed and not well suited to the job of president – and he seems to be just as much an inveterate liar as Hillary. The only way I could possibly be coaxed off that position is if I was convinced Trump would leave the running of the country to Pence and Christie – but how could one ever be certain of that? Trump would have to come out before the election and clearly state that that’s exactly what he planned to do – and no way that’s happening. So there ya go – I can’t support Trump.

But for all Trump’s flaws I’d say the chief reason I can’t support him is foreign policy – he’s pretty ignorant when it comes to most if not all policy questions but that ignorance is at its deepest and most frightening when it comes to foreign policy – and since Obama will be leaving an absolute unmitigated foreign policy mess behind when he quits the White House I can not with any clear conscience vote for a man who appears to have so little understanding of history, military strategy, diplomatic guile and nuance and the powerful ebb and flow of world affairs and how such relates to America’s key role as sole super power and only credible defender of Western Civilization against the threats posed by those rising and falling tides. Hillary may not be great or even good when it comes to those things but at least she has relevant experience, at least she knows the rules of the game. My sense is contra Obama she’s more sober realist than naïve ideologue when it comes to foreign policy – she may certainly prove to be just as misguided as Obama but at least she’ll be coming into the job with some clue as to all the things that can and will go wrong, some knowledge of all the forces out there that can lead a president down some very dark and winding roads. Trump would be coming in blind, devoid of relevant experience in any way, shape or form and promoting some deeply flawed and outright specious notions re foreign policy - and therefore dangerously vulnerable to making some truly awful decisions. So again, can’t support Trump. Not that I’ll be voting for Hillary – in so many ways she’s just as flawed a candidate as Trump, especially if she caves to the lunatic demands of the far left – but when it comes to foreign policy she’s clearly the superior candidate, which is faint praise indeed given how unprepared for the job Trump is.

But… having said all that, I think I understand the appeal of Trump – and what brought it into focus for me was the controversy over the insufferable shit head quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers refusing to stand for the national anthem because he refuses to pay tribute to such an awful racist country like America – he’s happy to profit from the marvelous economic system created by those evil white racists, but damned if he’ll thank them for the wealth their brilliant industriousness created for him. The San Fran quarterback is an insufferable moron – but what really galls is the media treating his message as justified if albeit inappropriately delivered. Are these people stupid or just so tightly locked in their ideological echo chamber that reality can simply no longer operate there? If America is such an awful racist hell hole where life for minorities is bleak and hopeless then how is it that the most successful ethnic group in America are Asians? It’s not whites – it’s Asians. If America is a rigged system run by racist whites how the christ is that possible? Well, it’s possible because Asians work hard, have a low divorce rate, honor family values and make damn sure their kids get a good education – they don’t spend a lot of time sitting around blaming all their troubles on a phantom horde of white racists that’s out to get them. There’s a large white working class population out there that’s sick and tired of the grievance mongering and absurd blathering of the left and would just love to say to that idiot quarterback: either leave the country if it’s such an awful place – or shut your fucking mouth you hypocritical, piece of shit moron – and they’d like to say the same thing to the liberal elite that makes such idiots possible. Trump captures that emotion.

It was not too long ago that America’s now reviled white working class saved the world from fascism – Spielberg made a great movie honoring those men called Saving Private Ryan – the left is so unhinged by its progressive zealotry, I wonder if that film could get made today – there’s no blacks in it, it extolls the virtues of both the American military and the industrious brilliance of American capitalism, and it lionizes the heroic, selfless ethos of the American white working class that made victory possible – all those things modern liberal ideology would have great trouble with.  I bet you the film couldn’t get made. That it’s not absurd at all to contemplate such a thing goes a long way towards explaining Trump.

[are you saying there’s no racism in America? Well, obviously not – racism, or more accurately, intolerance based on identity and cultural differences, is a staple of human behavior and has been since the Sumerians were wondering around the fertile crescent – every society that has ever existed has manifested this intolerance and not surprisingly pretty much every society that has ever existed practiced some form of slavery – note to Black Muslims who embrace Islam out of a hatred for racist white America: Mohamed owned slaves, the Koran endorses the keeping of slaves – oddly enough only one country that I know of has fought a bloody civil war to put an end to the practice, which makes it especially galling that liberals still talk of the white working/middle class of America as the be all and end all of racism.

Look, it’s a ludicrous tautology to state that racism played a significant role in the black experience in America – point one is making is that racism no longer accounts for the problems plaguing black communities, as the numbers make clear – blacks make up about 13% of the population but commit over 50% of violent crimes and account for over 50% of violence against police – so it’s hardly surprising that police interaction with black men seems disproportionate – it is – but the cause is math and probabilities, not racism – the numbers go on - close to 80% of blacks are born into fatherless homes, a huge problem – I can’t remember the ratios but a distressingly high number of blacks do not graduate high school, which is a bare minimum requirement if one hopes to survive in the new economy – what’s worse, even those who do graduate from high school are coming from inner city schools that do an absolutely horrible job of educating their students,  which is not surprising since it is now liberal doctrine to consider it a micro aggression to ‘force’ proper english grammar upon blacks – charter schools are helping to correct this problem, but what does the NAACP do? Comes out against charter schools. Liberal insistence on seeing racism as the root of all evil in America is doing nothing at all to serve the interests of blacks and is increasingly pissing off the white working/middle class that is dealing with a slew of problems of their own, problems which are largely being ignored by the elites of both parties – although that doesn’t include Paul Ryan, the man who would be the next president if common sense had any role to play in the politics of the moment.

Anyway, point is the in many ways justifiable anger roiling the white middleclass and the conservative media’s relentless pandering to the populist nationalism it has given rise to pretty much explains Trump. But of course conservative media didn’t just pander to the ‘movement’, it actively helped create it through its ceaseless jabbering about some evil republican establishment out to save their cushy jobs by stabbing ‘true’ conservatism in the back at every turn – always an absurd fantasy but now we know just how absurd since clearly Trump is no ‘true conservative’ – apparently what these media provocateurs wanted all along was nothing more than a Mussolini type to march on in, take a giant shit on political correctness and then head off to Washington to kick some butt. Complete nonsense, but a lot of people bought the snake oil – and this too explains Trump. Indeed, since these media provocateurs have played a key role in turning an election that given Clinton’s problems should have been a slam dunk into something of a hail Mary, one could argue that the best thing that could happen for conservatism in America is if Trump wins and then utterly fails to make good on any of the promises he made to the angry mob and their media goons - that should shut up the Hannitys and Limbaughs and Coulters of the world – because we all know that if/when Trump loses, big or small, the angry mob and the media goons are gonna blame it on a rigged election and that evil republican establishment. The absolute last thing they’re gonna do is look in the mirror and say “you know what? You are a complete fucking moron”.

So you’re saying you do in a way support the Trump nomination? No - god no – it’s political suicide and probably means the end of the GOP as a national party because I don’t see how you ever clear the air of the populist shit Trump has stirred up – republicans have nominated the one political figure in the country that is more hated than Hillary – they had a entirely winable election in front of them and threw it away in a fit of populist anger - that’s pretty much the definition of stupid.


Although, for a variety of reasons a Trump win is not impossible given how awful a candidate Hillary is herself – extremely unlikely, but not impossible – an email surfaces that proves she knowingly jeopardized national security by using a private server or that she or her husband clearly profited from the selling of influence while she served as Secretary of State, hard to see how her campaign survives that, even with the media doing everything in its power to save her. And let’s remember that the state of the economy is usually the single most important factor influencing elections and the American economy has more or less sucked throughout the Obama presidency and recent numbers suggest that it’s getting worse – I think the awfulness of Trump as a candidate severely undercuts that would be advantage, but who knows]

Thursday, August 25, 2016


“Look, it’s America – if a person can figure out a way to make a career out of saying outlandish and stupid things then I guess in a sense they deserve credit for that – but it doesn’t follow that I’m therefore obligated to take the stupid things they say seriously. Kim Kardasian has made a career out of being a shallow narcissist -  I suppose that a person with apparently no skills or talents manages to do that is in some perverse way deserving of credit, but even if that thought doesn’t drive you to suicide from contemplating the ridiculousness of our culture, you’re still not required to see the fat assed idiot as somehow redeemed and suddenly worth listening to. Limbaugh and Hannity and Coulter etc etc are the fat assed idiots of conservative media -  they say outlandish and stupid things, they craft incoherent arguments in service of bad ideas that are nothing more than angry, empty rhetoric dressed up as ideas – they’ve made good careers doing so because there’s a cohort of voters out there mired in simplistic thinking and therefore easily fooled – Bernie Sanders prospered for the exact same reason. Do Hannity et al then expect me to take Bernie seriously because his idiocy was rewarded by fools? Because that’s the argument they’re gonna have to make if they expect me to start listening to them for any other reason than to sadly marvel at how absolutely degraded political debate is right now in this country – hell in Western democracies everywhere. It’s a damn crisis far as I’m concerned.”  

Thursday, August 18, 2016

I think people are missing the point of Trump hiring as his campaign chief that contemptuous scumbag from Breitbart Bannon, the guy who has been telling Trump to run his presidential campaign exactly how he ran his primary campaign – what this hire tells me is that’s exactly what Trump intends to do and what that tells me is that Trump’s political brand is more important to him than the presidency – what it tells me is that Trump has concluded he can still make money off that brand after the election without having to go to all the bother of actually trying to win the presidency – those who think Trump won’t pivot because he’s incapable of such a thing are wrong [well, half wrong] – Trump won’t pivot because doing so would damage the brand and the brand is all that matters to him when measured against what would be required to actually try and win an election that may after all be unwinnable at this point – and if I’m right what Trump is telling his supporters is that they’re incomprehensibly stupid people who threw away a real shot at the White House in order to back a charlatan who only ever cared about serving the interests one thing: himself.