Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Israel rejects French truce proposal - I agree with that, and I assume they were prepared for such an initiative from usual parties - signing onto anything right now because of 'international' pressure would not serve their purposes, which as I've said should be to refurbish Israeli 'deterrence' credibility post Lebanon and debase Hamas' 'honest partner for peace' and 'legitimate elected body' credibility - still, issue of proportional response will become problem, which is why I say in order to retain strength of upper hand and optimal leverage Israel should continue air war, with vague threats of invasion, for several more days, and then just unilaterally stop with vows that if Hamas does not agree to renew the cease fire within a certain timeframe, a week sounds good, then miliatary operations will begin again - a return to hostilities will create an impression of pressure to escalate to invasion, but invasion would not be in best interests - unless taken to logical conclusion of complete surrender - keep up pressure as I've stated and Hamas will have no option but to concede if it hopes to remain viable - but timing is important because any ceasefire cannot appear to come at the behest of the 'international community', such would only serve Hamas' interests since Israel would inevitably be cast as the evil aggressor - Israel must either utterly destroy Hamas, which I don't see as feasible within any reasonable limits, or force it to bend to their will by agreeing to renew the ceasefire. Of course Hamas, realising it probably has no good options here if Israel plays it right, may refuse to concede - but as long as Israel is seen to offer an out, which is essentially a return to status quo ante, then I don't see how a refusal to concede will stand them in good stead with the majority of Gazans - but then one cannot discount the irrational tendencies often evidenced in the region rising up to screw over my careful calculations...

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

"... they say their goal is to stop Hamas firing missiles into Israel... to me that's a mistake to announce such since it's probably impossible to do, unless of course one is prepared to destroy Gaza... which may indeed be a good idea... but unless you're prepared to do that don't make promises that would require it... as well Barak says the operation is just beginning... again, I don't see why you'd want to box yourself into a corner like that... you take away the option of just stopping right now and acting as if all your goals have been met... I mean, Hamas is going to claim victory no matter what happens, but the limited credibility of these claims will be very much compromised if no one really knows what you're ultimate intentions actually were... and certainly destroying Hamas' credibility is a much more practical goal than attempting to destroy Hamas itself... it's no easy thing to root out an ideology, and indeed anything that allows purveyors of an ideology to portray themselves as sympathetic victims lends a false strength to their cause... but preparing the ground for an ideology's slip into irrelevance?... doable..."